Closing the gender gap? Not quite yet.

Last night as the polls closed in Virginia, many news stations were calling the gubernatorial race too close to call but by midevening the writing was on the wall for Cuccinelli camp. With a 2.4 margin, many political analyst are contributing McAuliffe’s success to unmarried women, who showed up for by him by a margin of 42+ for the Governor elect.

In 2012 President Obama won over women by almost 11 points over GOP contender Mitt Romney and by 7 percentage points in 2008 against John McCain. With such an obvious gender gap in support for the last two major elections, did either side of the VA governor’s campaigns take any lessons learned and apply them to their respective races?

It’s no secret that as the race turned the last bend both campaigns shifted focus with Cuccinelli speaking more on his opposition for the ACA and McAuliffe driving his message home with women. Cuccinelli realized his mistake too late when he attempted to make some last minute appeals to women as he began to mention more often his work as Attorney General fighting human trafficking and domestic violence, but was no match for the barrage of ads that McAuliffe put out as well as groups such as Planned Parenthood.

Exit polls in Virginia show that about 60% of the state believe that abortion should be legal and McAuliffe last efforts to remind women voters of Cuccinelli’s staunch opposition of abortion  might have been the exact strategy that won him the election by such a narrow margin.

Exit polls also show that residents in Virginia identify as being a democrat over a republican by 5% points. Given the discrepancies with the likeability of each candidate, I would argue that this race was less about voting for the candidate and more about supporting the national party platforms but only more post-election data will be able to illuminate such findings.

For more exit poll information , click here.

For the Virginia election results, click here.

 

 

Aftermath

The election is over. The ads will stop, those signs will be picked up out of yards and again, those ads will stop. So how did McAuliffe do it? In a race that looked like it was going to be a massive win for the Democrat and as the night went on, the belief changed that he would eek out a win, but that he would still win regardless and as the saying goes, a win is a win. But in a race where voters didn’t seem enthused by either candidate, turnout was key and McAuliffe did the one thing he needed to do: identify his coalition and make sure they vote and in the end, that’s exactly what happened. Let’s look at the exit polls

The campaign identified the voters they needed and made sure they had a presence in Northern Virginia. When Bob McDonnell won in 2009, Northern VA went red so it was their job to turn it blue and they did that successfully. It also helps that the White vote in Virginia is eroding at a fast pace, going from 79% in 2009 to 72% in 2013.

McAuliffe also started early campaigning to Women and making his case for being a better governor for them than Cuccinelli and while he only lost the men vote by 3 points, he won the women vote by 9, which makes the difference in a close race.

By painting Cuccinelli as extremely conservative, McAuliffe appeared to be the more moderate of the two and moderates made up 44% of the electorate in this race, the largest group by far and they broke for McAuliffe by 22 points, 56% to 34%.

McAuliffe had the effectively utilized time by branding his opponent early, he clearly had the money, outspending Cuccinelli, and he understood where his votes were and made sure they came out to vote. That’s why we’re looking at Governor McAuliffe and not Governor Cuccinelli.

The African American Vote

Terry McAuliffe is up. Ok, that’s hardly the best kept secret, but it’s a fact. With about a week left before Virginians head to the polls to elect the next governor of the Commonwealth, the McAuliffe campaign is doing all that they can to not spike the football too early and shore up any weaknesses they have. A potential stumbling block, according to Politico, is ensuring that African Americans come out and vote in a year when Barack Obama is not on the ticket. Obviously he will not recreate the turnout for a Presidential election, but in a race where his opponent has more of the support of white men, McAuliffe needs those voters to ensure he gets the victory.

The camapaign has done several things to build a connection with African American voters, as their campaign literature has pictures of he and President Obama together. McAuliffe has voiced his support for the President and has spoken on policies that he feels will help the African American community in Virginia. And while attending NAACP meetings or getting the President to stump for him may be great things, McAuliffe really needs to create relationships with the African American churches in the area.

These churches aren’t just places of worship, they’re pillars of the community and the pastors are looked upon as community leaders with huge influence in the way their congregation votes. Regardless of the science behind it and the facts, voting is a personal experience and something done with the heart, not the mind. If McAuliffe truly wants to appeal to the heart of these voters, he needs to hit them where their hearts are and for many members of the African American community, its the church. I’ve canvassed for him every Saturday for the past 3 weeks now and I can’t count the number of African Americans I’ve talked to who mention how important church is for them or how they plan to vote with the same group that they attend church with.

There’s only one Sunday between now and Election Day and when churches begin transporting their members to vote early or on Election Day, the McAuliffe campaign needs to do everything in its power to make sure they’re voting for him.

Virginia’s Mental Health System in Need of Cash

As this race goes into its last two weeks and with the last debate taking place tonight at Virginia Tech (it’ll be interesting how the gun debate plays there), both candidates are focusing on the different ways in which they would deal with the state’s lack of funds for its mental health system.

According to a recent Washington Post article, Virginia cut its mental health budget by 9% between 2009 and 20011, despite the state putting more focus on the issue after the shootings at Virginia Tech. Ultimately, it will be on the future governor to decide how to put more money into the program, especially with a renwed focus on mental health after the Navy Yard shooting and the shooting at the Capitol.

McAuliffe’s plan, or at least part of it, is to expand Medicaid, giving coverage to about 400,000 Virginians, along with increasing the funds for any mental health programs the state would run. While the state has leaned Democratic in the last two Presidential elections, it is still a state known to be fiscally conservative and the idea of a big government expansion may not play well with the state overall, but it does play extremely well with his base. His ideas run in direct contrast with his opponent, who wants to cut Medicaid and give those funds to other areas of health care, including mental health funds. But, cutting money from a Medicaid system that is already low on money, seems to say that a lot of people would be left out in the cold if Cuccinelli takes office.

Both candidates agree that putting more money into higher education to produce more psychaitrists is also a great way to move forward for the state and while that’s all well and good, McAuliffe should focus on the first part of his plan, which is finding ways to improve the current system and fund it. In a fiscally conservative state, one that has been hit with a lot of furloughs due to sequestration and the government shutdown, McAulffe shouldn’t have a problem making a case for government and its importance, but spending more money is an idea that voters could potentially turn away from. Tonight’s debate will be an important one to push these ideas and find a right balance to them, especially on the campus of a school that was devastated by gun violence and the memories are still fresh for a lot of members of the community.

The Richmond Times-Dispatch Non-endorsement is not a good look for anyone.

In an interesting turn of events as the seemingly endless Virginia gubernatorial race enters its final two weeks, both parties were left in the proverbial dust when it came to earning the endorsement of the Richmond Times-Dispatch.

The opinion article states, “The words that follow should not come as a surprise. During recent months, numerous editorials in The Times-Dispatch have lamented the gubernatorial campaign.” These campaigns have been widely described by pundits as a race between “who is least unlikeable,” and the Times-Dispatch goes on to make just this very case.

“The major-party candidates have earned the citizenry’s derision. The third-party alternative has run a more exemplary race yet does not qualify as a suitable option. We cannot in good conscience endorse a candidate for governor.”

This news is definitively not great for any party or person involved.

The fuming non-endorsement laid the case for what most of us already know—neither one of these candidates have proven that they are even likable enough to overcome some glaring strategic obstacles, let alone convince Virginia voters that what they promise is what’s best for the state. Both candidates have established vulnerabilities: McAuliffe has been predictably painted as an insider in the Beltway, and Cuccinelli’s strict conservative and socially divisive record (specifically cited by the Times-Dispatch as “unbecoming in an attorney general and would be unbecoming in a governor”)  has come back to rear its head in the state politics.

Just in case readers of the article entitled “Our choice for governor in 2013: none of the above” didn’t catch on after just reading that, the Times-Dispatch made its point extremely crystal clear by heading the piece with a picture of both McAuliffe and Cuccinelli, as well as the libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis, featuring bright red X’s across each visage.

Image originally from the Richmond Times-Dispatch

That’s… subtle.

The only candidate who made it out of the op-ed relatievly unscathed was Sarvis, who was briefly touched upon as unqualified, though the article went on to commend libertarian ideals as a whole.

Read the full article here.

McAuliffe Endorsed by Fairfax Chamber of Commerce

Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe is on a roll.  Most polls have McAuliffe winning by an average of about 4%.  This is good news for McAuliffe, who started out behind Cuccinelli in the spring and into early June.  McAuliffe took the summer to redefine himself and his opponent.  McAuliffe has branded himself a businessman, ceaselessly telling the story of his first business paving driveways for neighbors and local businesses at age 14.  Meanwhile he has painted Cuccinelli as a conservative who is too extreme – even for his own party.  (Check out Terry’s page of Republican endorsements.)  He solidified all these messages in last week’s debate.

The best news came after the debate, when The Fairfax Chamber of Commerce endorsed McAuliffe and the entire Democratic ticket, which includes Ralph Northam and Mark Herring.

McAuliffe’s hard work to build credibility in the business community and cast doubt on Cuccinelli’s capabilities is finally paying off.  It was a theme that was hammered home in the debate, which was sponsored by The Fairfax Chamber of Commerce.

“My opponent talks a lot about experience,” McAuliffe said during the debate. “But his experience has been in dividing people by pursuing his own ideological agenda.”

The endorsement from The Fairfax Chamber of Commerce gave McAuliffe the validity he desperately needed.

Better yet, this endorsement is keeping Cuccinelli on the defensive. If McAuliffe can continue persuading voters who lean Republican and Independents to vote for him, Cuccinelli will have a hard time making a comeback on Election Day.

New WaPo/NBC poll shows McAuliffe edging out Cuccinelli in VA Governor’s race

According to a new Washington Post-Abt SRBI poll, Democrat Terry McAuliffe has politically strong armed his way into the lead with 47% favorability amongst likely voters with NBC confirming the five point lead with it’s own poll. It’s important to note, however, that when the libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis is thrown into the mix, McAuliffe’s lead diminishes to a narrow 49-44% lead between he and Cuccinelli.

Why do these polling numbers matter? According to Glen Bolger’s essay “The Use of Survey Research in Campaigns” in Campaigns and Elections American Style , the McCauliffe campaign can use the numbers to test “overall attitudes, intensity, wording nuances,” etc and how they resonate within specific audiences. It’s the opinion of THIS amateur political analyst that the McAufliffe campaign might have have done just this, reflected in the recent lead that McAuliffe has taken over Cuccinelli.

Washington Post is reporting that the McAuliffe campaign has female voters to thank for this edge ahead, as they prefer McAuliffe to Cuccinelli by a full 24 percentage points. This could be reflective of a recent strategy on the McAuliffe side to paint Cuccinelli as an extremist when it comes to issues such as abortion, as demonstrated by McAuliffe’s latest ad.

Watch the ad below.

The ad features an OB-GYN from Norfolk who claims she is “particularly offended by Ken Cuccinelli” and then goes on to rehash the candidates position on abortion stating he’s against it “even in cases of rape and incest, even to protect a woman’s health.” The use of a doctor that deals specifically with such an intimate facet of women’s health, and one that might actually be recognized by Virginians, was a smart strategic move on the McAuliffe campaign in an effort to appeal to the moderate women in Virginia who often determine the closest of Virginia races.

The Cuccinelli campaign responded by attempting to pivot back to the GOP safe house of “jobs, jobs, jobs” but in light of the growing Bob McDonnell scandal—the current governor of Virginia who also ran on a platform focused on job creation and the economy in 2010—it would seem to be in Cuccinelli’s best interest to try to respond to attacks revolving around his conservative social platform, especially given Sarvis’ significant polling numbers which signify that Virginias are in a fight with themselves over who they dislike the least.

On Wednesday September 25, both candidates will have a chance to clear the air as they take the stage for their second meeting and second debate hosted by the Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce.

Quinnipiac Poll: McAuliffe is “less disliked” than Cuccinelli

On Wednesday the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute released new numbers on the ever tightening Virginia gubernatorial race between Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli and Terry McAuliffe. Findings show that likely voters in the Commonwealth would vote for McAuliffe over Cuccinelli with the former edging out the latter 44% to 41% respectively with the results coming in within the margin of error at 3.1%.

That’s unfortunately where the semi-good news stops for the McAuliffe campaign. With numbers like a 38%-38% favorability rating split, and 42% of the respondents reporting they find McAuliffe untrustworthy, it would seem that now would be a good time for a friendly, familiar-faced surrogate to vouch for McAuliffe’s small image problem–especially because almost third of the respondents (22%) reported they haven’t heard enough about the candidate to make a decision.

Enter Mark Warner.

On Saturday the McAuliffe campaign released an ad featuring Senator Mark Warner, who makes a pitch for McAuliffe from the inside of what seems to be warehouse, speaking directly to the viewer.  The ad, entitled “Honored,” doesn’t mention Ken Cuccinelli, but does mention jobs more than once and paints McAuliffe to be just the bipartisan champion Virginia needs—a theme that has been reoccurring in a few of McAuliffe’s latest ads. It’s tasteful, upbeat, and associates McAuliffe with “the Virginia way,” helpful in combating some associations with McAuliffe as a DC-insider and someone who is out of touch with real Virginians.

Overall the ad was a good addition to a line of spots intended make McAuliffe seem more accessible to more Virginians, especially as Cuccinelli battles associations with former governor Bob McDonnell’s growing campaign finance scandal as well as some backlash from independent voters on his extremely conservative social views.

As the title of the poll so aptly states, McAuliffe remains “slightly less disliked” than his opponent Ken Cuccinelli. There is, however, much time left before November that will call for responses from both candidates that could shape voter perceptions such as the seemingly imminent government shut down mere days from now.